Why Is This US Shutdown Distinct (as well as More Intractable)?
Government closures are a repeat feature of US politics β however this one feels especially difficult to resolve because of shifting political forces and deep-seated animosity between both major parties.
Some government services are temporarily suspended, with approximately 750,000 employees likely to be placed on furlough without pay as Republicans and Democrats remain unable to reach consensus regarding budget legislation.
Votes aimed at ending the impasse have repeatedly failed, with little visibility on a clear resolution path this time because each side β as well as the nation's leader β can see some merit in maintaining their positions.
These are several key factors in which things feel different currently.
First, For Democrats, it's about Trump β beyond healthcare issues
Democratic supporters have insisted over recent periods for their representatives more forcefully fights the Trump administration. Well now Democratic leaders has a chance to show they have listened.
Earlier this year, Senate leader was fiercely criticised for helping pass GOP budget legislation thus preventing a government closure early this year. Now he's holding firm.
This is a chance for the Democratic party to demonstrate their ability to reclaim some control from a presidency that has moved aggressively on its agenda.
Refusing to back the GOP budget proposal carries electoral dangers as citizens generally will grow frustrated as the dispute drags on and consequences begin to mount.
Democratic representatives are leveraging the shutdown fight to highlight concerns about expiring health insurance subsidies and Republican-approved federal health program reductions for the poor, which are both unpopular.
Additionally, they're attempting to restrict executive utilization of his executive powers to cancel or delay funding authorized legislatively, which he has done with foreign aid and other programmes.
2. For Republicans, it's an opportunity
The President and one of his key officials have openly indicated of the fact that they smell a chance to make more of reductions in government employment implemented during the current presidential term to date.
The President himself said last week that the government closure had afforded him an "unprecedented opportunity", and that he would look to cut "opposition-supported departments".
The White House stated they would face a "challenging responsibility" of mass lay-offs to keep essential government services operating if the shutdown continued. An administration spokesperson said this was just "budgetary responsibility".
The scope of the potential lay-offs remains unclear, but the White House have been consulting with federal budget authorities, the budgeting office, which is headed by the key official.
The administration's financial chief has already announced the halting of government financial support for Democratic-run parts the opposition party, including New York City and Illinois' largest city.
Third, Trust Is Lacking between both parties
Whereas past government closures have been characterised by late-night talks among political opponents aimed at restoring government services running again, there appears to be minimal cooperative willingness for compromise presently.
Instead, animosity prevails. The bad blood continued over the weekend, as both sides exchanging accusations for causing the impasse.
House Speaker from the majority party, accused Democrats of not being serious toward resolution, and maintaining positions during discussions "for electoral protection".
Meanwhile, the Senate leader levelled the same accusation against their counterparts, saying that a Republican promise regarding health funding talks after operations resume cannot be trusted.
The President himself has escalated tensions through sharing a computer-created controversial depiction of the Senate leader along with another senior opposition figure, where the representative appears wearing traditional headwear and a moustache.
The representative with party colleagues denounced this as discriminatory, which was denied by the Vice-President.
Fourth, The American Economy faces vulnerability
Analysts expect about 40% of government employees β over 800,000 workers β to face furlough due to the government closure.
This will reduce consumer expenditure β and also have wider ramifications, including halted environmental approvals, delayed intellectual property processing, payments to contractors and other kinds of federal operations tied to business cease functioning.
The closure additionally introduces fresh instability within economic systems currently experiencing disruption by changes ranging from trade measures, previous budget reductions, enforcement actions and technological advancements.
Analysts estimate potential reduction of approximately 0.2% from national economic expansion for each week it lasts.
However, economic activity generally rebounds most of that lost activity following resolution, as it would after disruption caused by a natural disaster.
That could be one reason why the stock market have shown limited reaction to the ongoing impasse.
On the other hand, experts indicate should the President carries out his threat of mass firings, the damage could be more long-lasting.